There is a lot of noise in the media about the morality of the American NSA “spying” on its citizens.
Equally, in some quarters, there is a lot of talk about big-data and the huge impact it is going to have on everyone’s life. Even Prime Minister David Cameron is singing its praises and putting it at the heart of improving healthcare in the UK. Many experts are claiming it is the new catalyst revolutionizing innovation and productivity whilst generating huge savings in both the private and public sectors.
According to the McKinsey Global Institute, big-data is potentially worth euro 250bn per annum to Europe’s public sector administration, with claims the UK government could save approximately GB pound 30bn a year by capitalizing on big-data.
What’s so big about data?
However, many people are predicting the worst, in terms of individual privacy. So, what exactly is big-data?
Zettabytes
1 zettabyte (ZB) is:
- 1 billion terabytes or
- 1021 bytes
There is no storage device on the planet that can store 1 ZB as of 2012.
Well, it is actually what it claims, a virtually unfathomable amount of electronic information. According to IBM, 2.5 quintillian bytes of data are created every day with a staggering 2.7 zettabytes of data estimated to have been accumulated by 2012.
Customer records, text messages, digital images, sound, and video, technical information, email and social media comments, mobile phones, and GPS, etc. all produce data, which has grown exponentially since 1993 when 3 percent of the world’s data was stored electronically compared with over 90 percent in the last two years.
Big brother
So, aside from the huge information security aspects, what exactly does it mean to the security industry, and to human rights? We have just witnessed the release of the UK Government’s new Surveillance Camera Code of Practice, meant to assure the public of the strict and ethical use of video surveillance, which since the early 90s has played a major role in supporting and protecting the public.
This proliferation of surveillance cameras has led some people to compare the UK to the Orwellian society depicted in George Orwell’s 1984. Fortunately, the majority of the public has remained supportive of this key weapon in the safety and security armoury. However, does the use of big-data risk altering the dynamics and alienating the public, as security systems and sensors, surveillance cameras, ANPR, access control, GPS, RFID, video analytics, and biometrics add considerable and often personal data to the big-data pool?
Is technology leading us towards the frightening world portrayed in the Spielberg science fiction thriller Minority Report, where murders are predicted and stopped before they happen? Predicting the future is already standard practice in a number of areas — weather forecasting being a classic example, and we know how accurate that is. So should we be concerned that big-data is already being used for “predictive policing”?
Such tactics have been successfully deployed in some 15 separate trials across the US, including Seattle and Los Angeles, where, in the Foothills Police division, crime was cut by 12 percent in four months. Trials are also underway in the UK by Kent Police.
Clearly, these organizations have not resorted to the use of psychics. They rely on giant computers, using powerful algorithms and analytics to predict crime patterns. Originally developed to predict aftershock patterns following earthquakes, crime data software maps years of past crime information, which is updated daily with the location, time, and type of crime committed, and mixed with human behaviour analysis to predict and identify crime hot spots, highlighting where there is a high probability of a criminal event taking place. Add in facial recognition and you have an extremely powerful tool.
According to Oxford professor Viktor Mayer-Schonberger and journalist for the Economist, Kenneth Cukier:
Big data will ultimately allow us to predict the future. It can tell us things like what we’ll buy and when, when the price of a new gadget will drop, and which people are most likely to commit a crime.
Clearly, there is an increasing issue in balancing evermore diverse and growing security risks with human rights and individual freedom. We are certainly living in interesting times.
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Fascinating post indeed! But I don’t think weather forecasting is analogous to behavior prediction. Weather forecasting and earthquake prediction are scientific calculations based on scientifically defined phenomena. But there is always a fair bit of deviation of actual behavior from predicted behavior. I am skeptical if human behavior can ever be exactly predicted?
Science fiction has shown glimpses of what it could be like predicting future as mentioned in the post about Orwellian society and Minority Report. But real world is somewhat different from fiction. That is not to say that predictive policing is not possible at all. In fact 12 % cut in crimes in areas where trial deployment is carried out is amazing. But it’s still a trial, and I would like to see some independent research in this matter to overcome my skepticism.
True, we’re unpredictable as individuals but we’re startlingly predictable as a tribe.
A pretty simple example of this sort of stuff working that I’ve read about is the use of ANPR cameras for intelligence gathering. Then that data is held up against various other bits of information to detect patterns of criminals. Then the Police are told ‘Go and sit at this junction from about 4.45pm on Friday and within 30 minutes you’ll see a known drug dealer on his way home. Bingo. It does work.
The end result of the predicted data will be the key in any process. The prediction will be measured with the tools that were used to analyze it. Also the tool cannot do justice if you do not know how to do it effectively.
That in itself is a big issue. If you are not using the data correctly it’s not going to be effective. We’ve had several instances in recent history where we heard that warning signs were ignored or that they had data to indicate that something might be up but it was not acted on. Then we get warnings about “increased activity” then the warnings are removed without explanation. Having the data is one thing, being able to parse through it and make decisions based on it is another matter and it is incredibly difficult. I’m just hoping that we never… Read more »
We can be pretty predictable as individuals as well. If you need proof of that, look no further than Amazon.com. Sign up for a new account, buy a dozen or so books, and they’ll predict what other books you will like. Buy one you’ve never heard of, where the selection is based entirely on their predictability algorithm, and you’ll be amazed at how well they’ve predicted your preferences.
@ Rob
I agree with you. While people individually are unpredictable as a group, they are not. I can see how easily predictions could be made about how certain groups of people will react to certain situations.
@ Rob
This is a very good example. People are creatures of habit on the most part, so identifying someones habits will help predict their movements.
The danger in relying on technology to provide us with predictative behaviour, is that we stop using our own initiative when planning for crime prevention. Though it is frightening how predictable we are.
could not agree more… it a good tool as long as you have ability and good knowledge how to use it…
interesting point Rob… mass group instinct… follow the group… good few years ago during AI programing olimpics… Russian programed this parameter and won in they animals:)
it all depends on the field… as in many fields you have to follow the: law and manual… and no other way around… at my time in the military we use to have expression: any initiative would be coin of two sides
Not sure I understand batye? Something to do with the Olympics, big data, and the Russian team?
To a degree, yes, I agree with you, but if we think of it as technology enabling us to turn our minds to greater problems and using our judgment on top of computer’s logic then it’s positive. Think of the classic empowering tool of the women’s rights movement: the washing machine. As soon as Western women had their time freed up from all that washing they were able to use that for getting on and starting to build a more equal society. Maybe this is a bit of a leap though.
yes, Rob good few years ago during Programmers Olimpic competition, Russian team won… as they use idea to program AI with group behavier… in the core of AI…
yes, Rob you are right as technology offers solution to free up time… and with free time – human nature to creativity…
I agree every technology solves problem, however it will create more problems which need to be resolved in future.
it all depends on the technology and point of view… so to say…
Yes and I accept that
thank you, but best security is proactive security aproach…
Thank you for Predicting crime article.
I agree with you and technology can be use by anyone and it depends up the person how he/she use technology.
Thank you for this article.
I agree with you and technology is open to every one and it vary from person to person with good and bad thinking.