Climate change is overwhelmingly the biggest threat to mankind in 2019, a report by the World Economic Forum suggests.The effects of manmade global warming account for more than half of the top 10 threats identified by The Global Risks Report 2019.
“To effectively respond to climate change requires a significant increase in infrastructure to adapt to this new environment and transition to a low-carbon economy,” said Alison Martin, group chief risk officer at Zurich Insurance Group, in the report.
“By 2040, the investment gap in global infrastructure is forecast to reach $18tn against a projected requirement of $97tn. Against this backdrop, we strongly recommend that businesses develop a climate resilience adaptation strategy and act on it now.”
Five key environmental risks tracked by the report, which is based on a survey of more than 1,000 experts and decision-makers around the world, are characterised as both high impact and high likelihood. These include biodiversity loss, extreme weather events, failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation, man-made disasters and natural disasters.
“Of all risks, it is in relation to the environment that the world is most clearly sleepwalking into catastrophe.” The Global Risks Report 2019
“Of all risks, it is in relation to the environment that the world is most clearly sleepwalking into catastrophe,” said the report.
A report published by The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in October estimated that the world has 12 years at the most to make the drastic changes needed to stop temperatures from rising beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius – a target set by the Paris agreement, above which the damaging effects will become profound and wide-ranging.
Efforts to build on the Paris Agreement signed in 2015 have been hindered by the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency. The President, who has previously dismissed climate change as a hoax, said “I don’t believe it” in response to a report published by his own government that warned of devastating impacts in store as temperatures continue to rise.
Cyberattacks, along with data fraud, remain prominent on the list of the gravest threats after another year of high-profile breaches and accusations levelled at China and Russia of large scale cyber-espionage, sabotage and dissemination of fake news to undermine Western institutions – notably, in Russia’s case, in the EU referendum in Britain and the 2016 US presidential election.
“There were further massive data breaches in 2018, new hardware weaknesses were revealed and research pointed to the potential uses of artificial intelligence to engineer more potent cyber-attacks,” said the report.
Social instability is another major source of concern, with many commentators blaming social media for fuelling growing political polarisation – both among the general public and political class.
Weapons of mass destruction are a perennial threat to mankind and for obvious reasons is the number one risk by impact.
Individual state actors – no matter how powerful – are limited in what they can achieve alone to combat most threats in the top 10. However, many countries have become more inward-looking, with the UK on the cusp of leaving the EU and Donald Trump and several other populist leaders disavowing the rules-based international order.
The World Economic Forum, which publishes the report annually ahead of its Davos meeting, warns that worsening international relations are hampering efforts to coordinate responses to threats that defy national borders.
“With global trade and economic growth at risk in 2019, there is a more urgent need than ever to renew the architecture of international cooperation,” said World Economic Forum President Borge Brende. “What we need now is concerted action to sustain growth to tackle the grave threats facing our world today.”
Several economic headwinds are also threatening to squeeze resources needed to combat the myriad threats.
“Persistent underfunding of critical infrastructure worldwide is hampering economic progress, leaving businesses and communities more vulnerable both to cyberattacks and natural catastrophes, and failing to make the most of technological innovation,” says John Drzik from WEF partner Marsh. “Allocating resources to infrastructure investment, in part through new incentives for public-private partnerships, is vital for building and strengthening the physical foundations and digital networks that will enable societies to grow and thrive.”
Ironically, however, the climate-sceptic US President might inadvertently be doing his bit to fight climate change. The recent global economic slowdown has been at least partly blamed on Trump’s trade war with China and the global recession triggered by the 2009 financial crisis actually caused carbon emissions to fall.
Some 88% of those polled expected to witness further erosion of multilateral trading rules and agreements during 2019.
Almost as many (85%) are anxious about political confrontations between the world’s major powers, with tensions simmering between Russia and the West and the Middle East a continuing hotbed of unrest.
