Risk outlook 2022: Three key trends to account for

Global security professionals will be well aware that organisations are facing increasing risks in 2022. Data from the International SOS Risk Outlook 2022 report, suggests over two thirds (68%) of risk professionals anticipate risks will increase or stay the same this year. The prospect of this may be daunting for organisations that are already managing a multitude of risks – many of which continue to be exacerbated by the pandemic.

In this article, James Bird, Security Director – Intelligence & Assistance, and James Wood, Head of Security Solutions at International SOS, share their predictions regarding the risk outlook for 2022 and beyond. 

James Wood, Head of Security Solutions 

James Bird, Security Director – Intelligence and Assistance

Through interviews with circa 1,000 security experts across 75 countries, and conversations with the Workforce Resilience Council, International SOS has identified three key trends that security professionals need to be aware of in 2022.

1. Complexity is rising

Organisations everywhere are faced with a complex risk landscape. This situation is compounded by an influx of information from less than credible sources. This trend has been highlighted and worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic, with inaccurate information about the virus creating challenges for organisational decision makers.

As risk complexity grows, so does the importance of collecting accurate, non-politicised and actionable intelligence. Security professionals must work to ensure that staff have access to the most up-to-date intelligence, utilising the knowledge of on the ground contacts where necessary.

They should look to partner with experts who can help to improve the collection, corroboration, and analysis of intelligence.

2. Organisations risk being caught off-guard by rapidly changing security environments, as civil disorder and geopolitical volatility are expected to rise above pre-pandemic levels

 Whilst focus on pandemic management has rightly been the priority for many organisations over the last two years, 2022 will bring additional security challenges to the fore. This situation will require extra attention from senior decision-makers.

The underlying security situation has been negatively exacerbated by COVID-19 in many countries and several pre-existing geopolitical trends have continued since the onset of the pandemic. Beyond that, localised security concerns and drivers of insecurity have continued unabated over the last two years.

From a civil disorder perspective, tensions linked to lockdowns, vaccine rollouts, and perceived infringements on civil liberties have fuelled unrest in some regions. With the increased use of vaccine mandates or restrictions on unvaccinated individuals around the world, we can expect to see social unrest increase throughout 2022.

Geopolitically, conflict between powerful governments will also create planning and potential security challenges for various organisations. We are currently seeing this with the heightened tensions between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO, for example. Other, localised, flare-ups, such as the recent coup d’état in Burkina Faso or social unrest in Kazakhstan – both linked to long-standing issues – are also indicative of enduring security threats.

Again, to effectively plan for, and manage, these risks security professionals must ensure they have access to the most up-to-date intelligence relevant to their organisation. In the planning phase, this knowledge can then be used to build tailored business crisis management and local evacuation plans. It is vital that these are regularly reviewed, ensuring that they remain effective throughout a crisis.

We assist lots of our clients directly with this process, using a ‘gap analysis’ to help build a roadmap to effective resilience; we help organisations understand where the specific gaps in their crisis management plans lie, identifying opportunities for enhancing existing processes both at the preparation, response, and recovery phase.

In the response phase, organisations will not only require timely and forward-looking intelligence and advice, but also the capability to effectively respond. This may require on the ground resources and support, ranging from secure transport and accommodation to full evacuation or relocation services.

3. Climate change will increase the frequency and impact of climate-sensitive hazards, such as infectious diseases, extreme weather events, and socioeconomic tensions

With widely covered events such as COP26 taking place last year, societal awareness of the impact of climate change is at an all-time high. This awareness should be mirrored by security professionals, who need to be attuned to the exact ways climate change may impact the organisations they work with.

The impact of climate change in triggering more extreme weather events and exacerbating socio-political tensions in 2022.

Statistics from the International SOS Risk Outlook 2022 report highlight this, as natural disasters (including extreme weather events), are the third most likely disruptor predicted by surveyed experts in 2022. This disruption could be directly related to a weather issue or the social, political fallout of climate change, be that civil disturbances, or resource scarcity and competition, for example. To cite one example of civil disturbances linked to climate change, the UK based environmentalist group, Extinction Rebellion has also already shared plans for a “major campaign of civil resistance” taking place in April. This emphasises the multifaceted nature of climate change from a security perspective.

Given the complex impact of the issue, organisations will need to be nimble in their planning and response. Understanding the likelihood and impact of a climate change induced event and then developing appropriate mitigation and response measures will be key. It is critical that as part of location and threat-specific crisis plans, effective and well-drilled communication, decision making, and incident management procedures are implemented. These should be coupled with a material assistance capability where feasible, to successful navigate the acute phase of any climate change induced security issue.

As the global risk environment continues to evolve in 2022, organisations will need to be set-up to manage the variety of complex risks which may impact them. Keeping employees informed, having robust, forward-looking and actionable intelligence, investing in up-to-date technological solutions, and working with on the ground experts – these are just some of the strategies in each risk manager’s arsenal. These strategies will be even more critical in 2022, as the global risk environment evolves and becomes even more volatile.

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