The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) is the organisation directly responsible for keeping the threat level under constant review. It makes its judgements based on a broad range of factors, not least the intent and capabilities of international terrorist groups in the UK and overseas.
Severe is the fourth of five threat levels to the UK from international terrorism, with the UK threat level reduced to ‘substantial’ last July for the first time in four years after a significant judgement was made that there had been a “chilling” effect on terrorism in and around Britain.
Speaking on Sky News, the Home Secretary has been swift to play down any linkage between this latest announcement and the events that transpired in Detroit on Christmas Day, stressing that although the threat had indeed increased there was “no intelligence” to suggest an attack is actually imminent.
Very real and serious threat
“We still face a very real and serious threat to the UK from international terrorism,” said the Home Secretary, “so I would urge the public to remain vigilant and carry on reporting suspicious events to the appropriate authorities. I would also urge them to support the police and security services in their continuing efforts to discover, track and disrupt terrorist activity.”
Johnson made his statement in the wake of briefings to the Prime Minister by the heads of the security services – MI5, MI6 and GCHQ – in addition to a meeting of the Government’s Cobra Emergency Committee.
At present, MI5 is said to be watching around 2,000 individuals across Britain, but the activity levels among domestic extremists are not thought to have risen significantly in recent months.
More often than not, it appears, judgements about a given threat will be based on a wide range of “fragmentary” information. Elements considered include what is actually known about the capabilities of terrorists, the method(s) they may use and the potential scale of the attack, as well as the targets they would be considering.
Confession to the FBI
It’s alleged that Umar Farouq Abdulmutallab, the individual who attempted to ignite a bomb sewn into his underwear in the Christmas Day attack, warned his US interrogators from the FBI that up to 20 more “like me” may be preparing further attacks.
On the back of that, our own Government is now busily compiling an updated ‘Watch List’ in a concerted effort to stop terror suspects from boarding planes.
The Home Secretary continued: “In his statement to Parliament on security and counter- terrorism earlier this week, the Prime Minister said that the first and most important duty of Government is the protection and security of the British people. We have a very focused counter-terrorism facility in this country, and the public should be reassured by that fact.”
The JTAC/UK Government decision to amend the threat level has been made as foreign ministers are preparing to meet in London this coming week to discuss the threat of terrorism in both the Yemen and Afghanistan. Attendees at the high-level gathering will include Afghan premier Hamid Karzai, the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon and, of course, current US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Meeting of the National Security Committee
Gordon Brown’s delivery to the House of Commons followed a detailed briefing on the latest intelligence at a meeting of the Cabinet’s National Security Committee. He said the failed attack over Detroit on Christmas Day signalled “the first operation mounted outside Arabia by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.”
The beleaguered Labour leader also talked about the increased threat from Somalia in East Africa and also the Sahel in West Africa, suggesting that there would now be a far greater degree of intelligence sharing with foreign countries.
The Government has stated that MI5, MI6 and the GCHQ have begun to establish “joint investigating and targeting teams” specifically designed to address potential threats before suspects are allowed to reach Britain. Those teams are configured to work in tandem with the JTAC, their prime responsibility being to collect, share and use intelligence.
