Yesterday, at the IFSEC International Show, two think-tank analysts came together to hash out where security is going to go over the next few years. Although neither speaker pretended to have a crystal ball, both pointed to some key current trends that are bound to continue.
Jamie Bartlett, head of the Violence and Extremism Programme at Demos, Britain’s leading cross-party think-tank, pointed to key political trends around Islamist threats in the United Kingdom.
“The threat from Islamist groups in UK is continuing to fragment. We have a distinct difference between international Al Quaeda groups,” he said in a talk on the opening day of the show. “There have been big, hard-hitting attempts on hard targets, but home-grown threats are continuing on soft targets, which can cause major disruption.”
In addition, Bartlett predicts a flattening of far right political parties. “The populist extremist parties across Europe have been growing in strength but not in the last three or four years. We will continue to see growth in openly neo-Nazi cells across Europe, and they will continue to hold flash mob demonstrations to cause disruption.”
Further, Barlett pointed to a current trend that he characterized as a “strange symbiotic relationship between the far right and far left street movements” and predicted that the two groups will continue to arrange meet-ups for the purpose of creating a demonstration/counter demonstration, both in person and online.
Benoit Gomis, research analyst on international security at Chatham House, meanwhile, offered a somewhat hopeful message. “Despite conflicts, the world is getting safer,” he reported. “There’s a decline in violence between states, and we are slowly going toward a world that is seen less through the lens of terrorism.”
However, Gomis does not counsel a stance of diminished attention. “We realize we need to get better at managing terrorism without neglecting other trends. There needs to be a rise in security, as well as understanding terrorism in a more nuanced way.”
Terrorism, by Gomis’s definition, is about radicalism and political violence. “We are keen to say we are intervening in Mali because of a terrorist threat here, but the situation is more complicated, and the aim is to achieve political stability,” he said by way of example.
The increase of drug trafficking and organized crime should be another focus on the national security stage, Gomis contends. On a global level, drug trafficking is an estimated $320 billion industry, making it a critical arena of attention. Further, cybersecurity at a government level will need to be a priority. “There has been a dramatic extension of networked users and devices,” Gomis said. “The world is getting more complex and interconnected. These cliches reflect the point that we are more aware of how multifaceted and complex the security problems we are facing are.”
Clearly, national and international security will, in some ways, remain the same. At the same time, the biggest threats of today, including extremism, terrorism, and organized crime, will only continue to be key security drivers.
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Thats a mind boggling number $320 billion! I suppose that is a tempting market to get into for some with no other means or prospects but really is the risk worth the price. The stiff penalties that are thrown at drug traffickers and organized criminals anymore are comparable to the sentences handed down to murders if not tougher in some instances. This will be hard to stop until you can find a way to make it not be profitable for the criminals involved. The question I guess is how do you do that?
Drug trafficking is a crime that reaches across a variety of legal fields and jurisdictions. further, it creates and enables other types of crime (for example, gun running, prositution, etc.). I suspect that the speaker was right and that this will be front and center in the focus of law enforement going forward.
I’ll echo that! Astounding figure, and just an estimate as well, so we don’t even know the full extent. I think what Hailey was saying about the drugs being the tip of the iceberg for other crimes is a big thing. At a local level a lot of crime is driven by addiction. On the national level, people-trafficking and prostitution is enabled by drugs, and internationally terror is funded by it. Interesting root of a lot of problems.
but home-grown threats are continuing on soft targets, which can cause major disruption
@Hailey, thanks for the post. Home-grown terror activities are happening in many parts of the world. This is the new strategy of the international terrorists to induct local people to carry out terror activities. I think governments across the globe should co-ordinate to fight this menance.
This will be hard to stop until you can find a way to make it not be profitable for the criminals involved.
@Jonathan Lipscomb, I totally agree with you. I think we have to make the punishment to drug-traffickers very harsh so that they think twice before indulging in such activies. Police should also improve their intelligence gathering so that such activities can be detected.
Punishments are pretty harsh already in many parts of the world, aren’t they? Death sentences for people in the Middle East and parts of Asia such as Indonesia for drug trafficking.
It seems to me that the ‘war on drugs’ that Nixon initiated back in the 70s just isn’t working and it’s time for some new tactics.
I think you run into the same old problems with these crimes as you do with cybercrime, when you cross boundries you need cooperation and if it is not there then the costs associated to stop the crime balloon out of control. When that happens only the crimes with the largest dollar amounts are targeted and the nickel and dime stuff falls through the cracks.
Isn’t that the right thing though? Stop the big money deals and that will limit the supply on the streets ie. the nickel and dime crimes.
Oh absolutely, but I am afraid that leads to the big fish mentality especially when those nickel and dime crimes can add up over time. A lot of small time dealers sell to feed their own habit and being able to take these people off the streets can cut off the trickle flow. I understand wanting to follow it up the chain to supplier and producer to cut it off at the source. Just because some guy somewhere is selling to few buyers and keeping numbers low is not reason to ignore him, especially because its cheaper to leave him… Read more »
I think Gomis point of the world becoming a safer place is due to the invention of technological tools such as surveillance, which helps track terrorist activities and more. Without the invention, I can say our world will be as doomed as hell. Both domestic and foreign terrorism is a thing of polical gratification. Thanks to the big brainers who continue to come up with innovative technology to track them.
As doomed as hell? That’s a big claim, kjoeandy. Certainly, security has a part to play in improving the quality of life for people living in a free state. Remember, as well though, that all technology can be used for not-so altruistic purposes.
Very poetic, I like that. *clicks save it*
It’s a positive approach to take, but I suppose we have to be realistic that we cannot possibly mow the whole lawn (to keep your metaphor going) so we have to try and mow as much as we can with what we have.
This is great news
http://redtape.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/28/18560809-feds-shut-down-financial-hub-of-the-cyber-crime-world?lite
and a step in the right direction.
Wow, that is phenomenal. And a real example of international cooperation! Despite the scale of the criminal activity in Liberty Reserve, does this mean some honest folk have also lost money?
Certainly, this has historically been an issue, but will only get more prevalent… wherever you are in the world. By inducting local people, as you mentioned, it makes events much harder to track and prevent.
@Robert Brown, the word doomed as hell is my expression of for example what happen in 9/11. I know technology has improved life ever than it has ever been and at the same time that improvement has also increased activities that I will say contradict the very purpose for which technology was invented. You probably have heard of the drones business, cyber attacks from China, etc, you will believe that technology goes two ways. In this link I can tell the useful purpose of technology for saving lives while other abuse it. Can we stop them, No but we can… Read more »